SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Spain | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Italy | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Albania | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Croatia | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 45.44%. A win for Italy had a probability of 29.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Italy win was 1-2 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spain | Draw | Italy |
45.44% ( 0.08) | 24.57% ( 0.27) | 29.99% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 57.11% ( -1.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.43% ( -1.39) | 45.57% ( 1.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.1% ( -1.34) | 67.9% ( 1.34) |
| Spain Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.84% ( -0.53) | 20.16% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.56% ( -0.86) | 52.44% ( 0.86) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.53% ( -0.93) | 28.47% ( 0.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.76% ( -1.18) | 64.24% ( 1.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spain | Draw | Italy |
| 2-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.39)2-0 @ 7.36% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 4.94% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.93% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.1% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 1.98% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.88% Total : 45.44% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.15)0-0 @ 5.74% ( 0.33)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.56% | 1-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 7.21% ( 0.24)0-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.68% Total : 29.99% |
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