Sparta are certainly capable of making this an uncomfortable match for Atletico, who have not been at their best in the competition this season. However, we are expecting Simeone's side to find a way to secure all three points on Tuesday, which would certainly leave them in a much more comfortable position in the table.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 46.23%. A win for Sparta Prague had a probability of 28.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (8.11%). The likeliest Sparta Prague win was 1-0 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
-0.05) 
0.06) 
