Lille have lost the ball in their defensive third more often than any other side in the Champions League this season (20), while only two teams have won possession in that part of the pitch more often than Atletico Madrid, suggesting the hosts can make some high turnovers.
While Atleti are still struggling at the back, they are also a formidable prospect on home turf, and their visitors do not tend to travel well.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 46.65%. A win for Lille had a probability of 27.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Lille win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
0.06) 
-0.09) 
