Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezia win with a probability of 37.49%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 35.4% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.13%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (10.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
-0.03) 
0.04) 
