Sunderland will be determined to return to winning ways in front of their own supporters, and we can see the Black Cats shading a close game on Tuesday night, with the winner potentially coming in the latter stages of the fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 43.22%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 31.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.

Result
Sunderland	Draw	Derby County
43.22% ( 0)	25.52% ( -0.01)	31.26%

Both teams to score 54.59% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.83% (

0.02)

49.16% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.76% (

0.02)

71.23% (

-0.02)

Sunderland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.33% (

0.01)

22.67% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.69% (

0.02)

56.31% (

-0.02)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.59% (

0.01)

29.41% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.59% (

0.01)

65.4% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Sunderland 43.22%

Derby County 31.26%

Draw 25.51%

Sunderland	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 9.89% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.34% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.45% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.63% 3-2 @ 2.72% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.65% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0) Other @ 2.18% Total : 43.22%	1-1 @ 12.1% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.5% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.51%	0-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.41% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.99% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.02% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.24% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.04% ( 0) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 2.47% Total : 31.26%