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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 36.42% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.7%) and 2-0 (5.06%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sydney FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
41.11% ( 0.23) | 22.46% ( -0.13) | 36.42% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 67.32% ( 0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.77% ( 0.62) | 33.23% ( -0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.01% ( 0.71) | 54.98% ( -0.71) |
| Sydney FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.07% ( 0.35) | 16.93% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53% ( 0.62) | 46.99% ( -0.62) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.03% ( 0.23) | 18.96% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.51% ( 0.38) | 50.49% ( -0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 5.06% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 4.14% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 3% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.21% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.4% Total : 41.11% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 7% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 3.21% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 2.3% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.48% Total : 22.46% | 1-2 @ 7.88% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 5.34% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 4.37% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.88% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.82% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.61% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0)3-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.65% Total : 36.42% |
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