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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 48.85%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 28.19% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.83%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
48.85% ( 0.01) | 22.96% ( -0.09) | 28.19% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 61.53% ( 0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.78% ( 0.48) | 39.21% ( -0.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.45% ( 0.5) | 61.55% ( -0.5) |
| Sydney FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.68% ( 0.18) | 16.32% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.1% ( 0.33) | 45.9% ( -0.33) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.52% ( 0.3) | 26.47% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.34% ( 0.39) | 61.65% ( -0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sydney FC | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 7.83% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 7.1% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 5.7% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.29% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.79% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.58% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.52% Total : 48.85% | 1-1 @ 10.4% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 6.27% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 4.32% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 1.68% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.28% Total : 22.95% | 1-2 @ 6.92% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.74% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.06% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.69% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.24% Total : 28.19% |
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