Toulouse have shown pleasing improvement in Ligue 1 since the turn of the year to improve their survival hopes, but with their visitors enjoying a strong run of their own and boasting more quality, we envisage an away win with the hosts also more fatigued on the back of a tough midweek European tie.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 47.54%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 26.46% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (8.83%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.03) 
