Forced into at least two alterations against a defensively-sound Lille unit, Strasbourg's hopes of ending the year on a high may be unfounded on Wednesday, especially when their recent miserable streak against Les Dogues is also taken into account.
Fonseca's men have found victories on the road hard to come by throughout all of 2023, but with a fresh-legged David coming up against one of his favourite opponents, the visitors should head into the winter break sitting pretty in the top four courtesy of a routine victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 52.67%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Strasbourg had a probability of 21.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.32%) and 1-2 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.99%), while for a Strasbourg win it was 1-0 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
-0.36) 
0.05) 
