SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uniao de Leiria win with a probability of 45.53%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uniao de Leiria win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uniao de Leiria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Uniao de Leiria | Draw | Nacional |
45.53% ( 0.01) | 25.7% ( -0.03) | 28.77% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 52.66% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.94% ( 0.13) | 51.06% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.08% ( 0.11) | 72.91% ( -0.11) |
| Uniao de Leiria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.61% ( 0.05) | 22.39% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.1% ( 0.09) | 55.9% ( -0.09) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.85% ( 0.08) | 32.14% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.37% ( 0.09) | 68.62% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Uniao de Leiria | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 10.77% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.56% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.02% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.71% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.2% Total : 45.53% | 1-1 @ 12.22% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.2% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.7% | 0-1 @ 8.17% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.94% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.64% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.75% ( 0)Other @ 2.68% Total : 28.77% |
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