SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 46.56%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 29.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 1-2 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | SC Farense |
46.56% ( 0.15) | 23.87% ( 0.05) | 29.57% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 59.27% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.38% ( -0.34) | 42.63% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.97% ( -0.33) | 65.03% ( 0.34) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.5% ( -0.07) | 18.51% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.27% ( -0.12) | 49.73% ( 0.12) |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.73% ( -0.3) | 27.27% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.29% ( -0.39) | 62.71% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | SC Farense |
| 2-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 7.18% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 5.25% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.41% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.21% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.48% Total : 46.56% | 1-1 @ 11.06% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.87% | 1-2 @ 7.19% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 6.56% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.97% Total : 29.57% |
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