Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 58.14%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 20.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.3%) and 0-2 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Nacional win it was 2-1 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Nacional | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
20.28% (![]() | 21.57% (![]() | 58.14% (![]() |
Both teams to score 56.89% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.92% (![]() | 41.07% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.53% (![]() | 63.47% (![]() |
Nacional Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.05% (![]() | 33.94% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.38% (![]() | 70.62% (![]() |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.13% (![]() | 13.87% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.73% (![]() | 41.26% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Nacional | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
2-1 @ 5.43% (![]() 1-0 @ 5.09% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 2.75% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 1.96% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 1.93% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 0.99% ( ![]() Other @ 2.14% Total : 20.28% | 1-1 @ 10.04% (![]() 2-2 @ 5.36% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 4.71% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.27% ( ![]() Other @ 0.19% Total : 21.57% | 1-2 @ 9.93% (![]() 0-1 @ 9.3% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 9.19% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 6.54% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 6.05% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 3.53% ( ![]() 1-4 @ 3.23% ( ![]() 0-4 @ 2.99% 2-4 @ 1.74% ( ![]() 1-5 @ 1.28% ( ![]() 0-5 @ 1.18% ( ![]() Other @ 3.2% Total : 58.14% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups: