SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uniao de Leiria win with a probability of 44.48%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uniao de Leiria win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uniao de Leiria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Uniao de Leiria | Draw | Tondela |
44.48% ( 0.17) | 25.9% ( 0.09) | 29.62% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 52.56% ( -0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.58% ( -0.5) | 51.42% ( 0.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.77% ( -0.44) | 73.23% ( 0.44) |
| Uniao de Leiria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.96% ( -0.13) | 23.04% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.15% ( -0.2) | 56.85% ( 0.19) |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.29% ( -0.45) | 31.71% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.88% ( -0.52) | 68.12% ( 0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Uniao de Leiria | Draw | Tondela |
| 1-0 @ 10.72% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.87% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 4.43% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.06% Total : 44.48% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 5.19% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.89% | 0-1 @ 8.39% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 7.07% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.8% Total : 29.62% |
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