While a third goalless result for Estoril will not surprise, Nacional finding the back of the net four times in as many league games suggests they could eke out consecutive victories at the expense of the struggling home side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 43.35%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (9.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Estoril Praia in this match.
0.19) 
-0.06) 
