SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 58.51%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 20.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.45%) and 0-1 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.43%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | Bayern Munich |
20.66% ( 0.21) | 20.83% ( 0.04) | 58.51% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 60.17% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.94% ( 0.11) | 37.06% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.75% ( 0.11) | 59.25% ( -0.11) |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.74% ( 0.26) | 31.26% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.38% ( 0.3) | 67.62% ( -0.3) |
| Bayern Munich Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.54% ( -0.04) | 12.46% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.58% ( -0.08) | 38.41% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union Berlin | Draw | Bayern Munich |
| 2-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.65% Total : 20.66% | 1-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.9% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.26% Total : 20.83% | 1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.07)0-1 @ 8.11% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 6.82% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 5.87% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 3.96% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 3.55% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 3.05% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.27% ( -0.02)Other @ 4.06% Total : 58.51% |
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