Union Berlin have claimed two 1-1 draws against Bayern in six meetings since gaining promotion, and we can envisage a repeat of that scoreline on Saturday.
The hosts have the pace and finishing ability to significantly damage the Bavarians' high defensive line, but the visitors have more than enough quality going the other way in order to remain unbeaten.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 80.53%. A draw had a probability of 12.3% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 7.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.08%) and 1-2 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.61%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 2-1 (2.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
-0.48) 
1.74) 
