There has been little to separate these two teams in recent years, but Augsburg have had the edge and will be regarded as favourites for Friday's contest on home soil.
After failing to score in four of their last five games, Union Berlin will hope to breach an Augsburg backline that has kept only two clean sheets all season, but that may not be enough to get the better of the hosts this time around.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Augsburg win with a probability of 50.06%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 25.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Augsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.99%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 0-1 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Augsburg would win this match.
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