Watford would do well to target a potentially decimated left-hand side of the Leeds XI, but the hosts just cannot buy a win at Vicarage Road, and the new manager bounce should only take them so far this weekend.
With Leeds possessing the formula for clean sheets on the road during their near-impeccable start to 2024, the visitors should pick up where they left off before the international break and maintain their standing in first place, in spite of their fresh fitness issues.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 51.45%. A win for Watford had a probability of 24.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.69%) and 0-2 (8.56%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-0 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
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