SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for Watford had a probability of 26.05% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Leeds United | Draw | Watford |
48.94% ( 2.56) | 25.01% ( 0.09) | 26.05% ( -2.66) |
| Both teams to score 52.77% ( -2.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.06% ( -2.15) | 49.93% ( 2.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.08% ( -1.95) | 71.92% ( 1.94) |
| Leeds United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.57% ( 0.22) | 20.43% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.13% ( 0.36) | 52.87% ( -0.36) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.32% ( -3.18) | 33.68% ( 3.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.67% ( -3.62) | 70.33% ( 3.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| Leeds United | Draw | Watford |
| 1-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.98) 2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 8.68% ( 0.84)3-1 @ 5% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.47)3-2 @ 2.72% ( -0.18)4-1 @ 1.99% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.2)4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.69% Total : 48.93% | 1-1 @ 11.89% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 6.88% ( 0.58)2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.39)3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.16)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.01% | 0-1 @ 7.49% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.47% ( -0.53)0-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.37)1-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.43)2-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.32)0-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.28)Other @ 2.33% Total : 26.05% |
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