When Mohamed Bayo joined Lille during the summer transfer window, it left a massive void in the Clermont attack, one that they have yet to fill.
Meanwhile, Marseille have been one of the most formidable defensive units in Ligue 1 to break down all season, and we do not believe they will have much difficulty containing a Clermont squad lacking in quality and creativity.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 66.88%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Clermont had a probability of 12.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.05%) and 1-2 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.6%), while for a Clermont win it was 1-0 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
-0.05) 
0.06) 
