Surely something must give, as both teams seek to end their dismal opening-day records, and it is most likely that Lens will do so, due to a combination of home advantage and their greater firepower up front. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 53.21%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Brest had a probability of 22.23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.67%), while for a Brest win it was 0-1 (7.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.

Result
Lens	Draw	Brest
53.21% ( -0.19)	24.56% ( 0.02)	22.23% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 50.09% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.52% (

0.1)

51.47% (

-0.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.72% (

0.09)

73.28% (

-0.09)

Lens Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.7% (

-0.04)

19.29% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.96% (

-0.06)

51.04% (

0.06)

Brest Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.07% (

0.22)

37.93% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.3% (

0.21)

74.7% (

-0.22)

Score Analysis

Lens 53.21%

Brest 22.23%

Draw 24.56%

Lens	Draw	Brest
1-0 @ 12.04% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 9.91% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.24% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.17% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 2.96% Total : 53.21%	1-1 @ 11.67% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.32% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.91% Total : 24.56%	0-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.44% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.59% Total : 22.23%