Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 36.31%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 35.71% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.78%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-0 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.