Although Montpellier's struggles at the end of last term have continued into pre-season, they have usually pick up a positive result against Troyes, and we think they will manage to take a point from Sunday's contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 30.12% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Troyes win was 0-1 (8.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
0.37) 
-0.14) 
