Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auxerre win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 32.41% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Auxerre win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.88%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Saint-Etienne win was 1-2 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Auxerre would win this match.
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