Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 53.26%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 23.92% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.16%) and 0-2 (8.42%). The likeliest Troyes win was 2-1 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint-Etienne would win this match.
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