Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 37.05%. A win for Pau had a probability of 36.85% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (6.22%). The likeliest Pau win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
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