Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 50.27%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Red Star had a probability of 24.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Red Star win it was 0-1 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.
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