Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 37.1%. A win for Rodez AF had a probability of 33.69% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.56%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Rodez AF win was 1-0 (11.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.
0.01) 
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