Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 49.2%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Dijon had a probability of 23.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.56%), while for a Dijon win it was 0-1 (8.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
-0.45) 
0.12) 
