Given the recent form of Columbus, there is an argument that this game should be regarded as a straight 50-50. However, we cannot ignore that Philadelphia have lost just twice in the MLS this season, leaving us to predict a narrow win for the visitors.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 52.57%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 22.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for a Philadelphia Union win it was 0-1 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.08) 
