Battling their bitter rivals always seems to take a toll on NYCFC, and we could see a battered and bruised side, who only have a few days to recover from that physically demanding game against the Red Bulls. Philly should benefit from The Pigeons' fatigue and continue their unbeaten run at home, where they have managed to shut down the most potent MLS sides. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 39%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.

Result
Philadelphia Union	Draw	New York City FC
39% ( 0.08)	27.27% ( -0.03)	33.74% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 49.83% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.38% (

0.12)

55.62% (

-0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.22% (

0.1)

76.78% (

-0.1)

Philadelphia Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.22% (

0.1)

27.79% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.63% (

0.13)

63.37% (

-0.13)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69% (

0.03)

31% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.69% (

0.03)

67.31% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Philadelphia Union 39%

New York City FC 33.73%

Draw 27.26%

Philadelphia Union	Draw	New York City FC
1-0 @ 11.03% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.27% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.06% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.53% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.02% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.92% Total : 39%	1-1 @ 12.91% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.61% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.26%	0-1 @ 10.08% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.57% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.95% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.03% Total : 33.73%