SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 6 | 41 |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 29 | 4 | 39 |
| 8 | New England Revolution | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 29 | -9 | 33 |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | -10 | 30 |
| 9 | Chivas USA | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 47.89%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 28.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
47.89% ( 0.67) | 23.73% ( -0.11) | 28.38% ( -0.56) |
| Both teams to score 58.91% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.27% ( 0.16) | 42.73% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.86% ( 0.15) | 65.13% ( -0.16) |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.98% ( 0.32) | 18.02% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.1% ( 0.56) | 48.9% ( -0.56) |
| San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.85% ( -0.31) | 28.14% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.17% ( -0.39) | 63.82% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 8.69% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.45% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 5.39% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 3.42% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.64% Total : 47.89% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.99% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.07% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.73% | 1-2 @ 6.99% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 6.43% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.53% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.75% Total : 28.38% |
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