SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Colorado Rapids | 14 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 14 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | -2 | 18 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | New York City FC | 13 | 16 | 26 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Union | 14 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 14 | 7 | 23 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 42.94%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 31.89% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.99%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-0 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for New York City FC in this match.
| Result | ||
| Minnesota United | Draw | New York City FC |
31.89% ( 1.21) | 25.17% ( -0.05) | 42.94% ( -1.15) |
| Both teams to score 56.05% ( 0.74) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.61% ( 0.71) | 47.39% ( -0.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.39% ( 0.66) | 69.61% ( -0.66) |
| Minnesota United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.89% ( 1.16) | 28.11% ( -1.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.21% ( 1.44) | 63.79% ( -1.44) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.96% ( -0.23) | 22.04% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.63% ( -0.35) | 55.37% ( 0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Minnesota United | Draw | New York City FC |
| 1-0 @ 7.86% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.54% ( 0.21)2-0 @ 4.99% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 3.19% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 2.11% ( 0.14)4-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.77% Total : 31.89% | 1-1 @ 11.89% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( -0.19)2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.17% | 0-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.35) 1-2 @ 8.99% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 7.09% ( -0.32)1-3 @ 4.53% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 3.57% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 2.88% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 42.94% |
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