We believe St Louis will put up a fight in this must-win game, but this team look overwhelmed and uncertain in big moments, while the experience of SKC in these pressure situations seems to have given them a leg up on their competitors.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 70.15%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 12.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 1-0 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.21%), while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (3.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Kansas City would win this match.
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