SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 45.2%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 31.74% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.09%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.27%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| St Louis City | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
45.2% ( 0.01) | 23.06% ( 0.01) | 31.74% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 63.44% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.33% ( -0.05) | 37.68% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.09% ( -0.06) | 59.92% ( 0.06) |
| St Louis City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.9% ( -0.02) | 17.1% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.7% ( -0.03) | 47.3% ( 0.03) |
| Sporting Kansas City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.52% ( -0.04) | 23.48% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.5% ( -0.05) | 57.5% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Louis City | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
| 2-1 @ 9.07% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.34% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.87% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.69% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.36% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.71% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.63% Other @ 4.18% Total : 45.2% | 1-1 @ 10.27% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.57% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.02% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.06% | 1-2 @ 7.45% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.22% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.6% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.18% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.04% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.3% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.15% ( -0)Other @ 3% Total : 31.74% |
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