SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Alfreton Town | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 8 | Chorley | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | Leamington FC | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Gloucester City | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Brackley Town | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Darlington | 6 | 1 | 8 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brackley Town win with a probability of 36.4%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 35.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brackley Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.84%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Chorley win was 1-0 (10.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chorley | Draw | Brackley Town |
35.79% ( 0.72) | 27.81% ( -0.34) | 36.4% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 48.37% ( 1.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.46% ( 1.28) | 57.54% ( -1.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.67% ( 1.01) | 78.33% ( -1.01) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.36% ( 1.11) | 30.64% ( -1.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.11% ( 1.29) | 66.88% ( -1.29) |
| Brackley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.74% ( 0.4) | 30.26% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.57% ( 0.48) | 66.43% ( -0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chorley | Draw | Brackley Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.96% ( -0.2) 2-1 @ 7.75% ( 0.18)2-0 @ 6.49% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 3.06% ( 0.16)3-0 @ 2.56% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 0.9% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.24% Total : 35.78% | 1-1 @ 13.1% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 9.27% ( -0.46)2-2 @ 4.63% ( 0.16)Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.8% | 0-1 @ 11.08% ( -0.42) 1-2 @ 7.84% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.62% ( -0.18)1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.32% Total : 36.4% |
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