Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 27.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (8.63%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 1-0 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.

Result
Alfreton Town	Draw	Chorley
27.83% ( 0.2)	27.19% ( -0.04)	44.98% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 47.66% (

0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.75% (

0.24)

57.24% (

-0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.91% (

0.19)

78.09% (

-0.2)

Alfreton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.84% (

0.29)

36.15% (

-0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.06% (

0.3)

72.93% (

-0.3)

Chorley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.64% (

0.03)

25.35% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.85% (

0.04)

60.14% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Alfreton Town 27.83%

Chorley 44.97%

Draw 27.18%

Alfreton Town	Draw	Chorley
1-0 @ 9.33% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.21% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.92% Total : 27.83%	1-1 @ 12.79% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.18%	0-1 @ 12.57% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 8.78% ( 0) 0-2 @ 8.63% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 4.02% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.95% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.38% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.25% Total : 44.97%