SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Kidderminster Harriers | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Alfreton Town | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Fylde | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Leamington FC | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Chorley | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Gloucester City | 5 | -1 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 27.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (8.63%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 1-0 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Alfreton Town | Draw | Chorley |
27.83% ( 0.2) | 27.19% ( -0.04) | 44.98% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 47.66% ( 0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.75% ( 0.24) | 57.24% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.91% ( 0.19) | 78.09% ( -0.2) |
| Alfreton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.84% ( 0.29) | 36.15% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.06% ( 0.3) | 72.93% ( -0.3) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.64% ( 0.03) | 25.35% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.85% ( 0.04) | 60.14% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Alfreton Town | Draw | Chorley |
| 1-0 @ 9.33% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.21% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.92% Total : 27.83% | 1-1 @ 12.79% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.17% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.76% Total : 27.18% | 0-1 @ 12.57% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 8.78% ( 0)0-2 @ 8.63% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 4.02% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.95% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.38% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.25% Total : 44.97% |
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