SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Altrincham win with a probability of 50.23%. A win for Wealdstone had a probability of 27.59% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Altrincham win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.09%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Wealdstone win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.77%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Altrincham would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Altrincham | Draw | Wealdstone |
50.23% ( 0.28) | 22.18% ( -0.06) | 27.59% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 63.85% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.05% ( 0.14) | 35.95% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.96% ( 0.15) | 58.04% ( -0.15) |
| Altrincham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.36% ( 0.15) | 14.64% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.23% ( 0.28) | 42.77% ( -0.28) |
| Wealdstone Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.8% ( -0.07) | 25.2% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.06% ( -0.1) | 59.94% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Altrincham | Draw | Wealdstone |
| 2-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.81% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6.01% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.36% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 4.14% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.89% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.99% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.43% Total : 50.23% | 1-1 @ 9.77% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.47% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.9% ( 0)Other @ 0.35% Total : 22.18% | 1-2 @ 6.73% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.08% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.97% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 2.5% Total : 27.59% |
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