Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 36.52%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 34.7% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.61%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 1-0 (11.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Sutton United in this match.