Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 44.4%. A win for Wrexham had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Wrexham win was 0-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
-0.13) 
0.14) 
