Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 49.79%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 25.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.52%) and 0-2 (8.76%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-0 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Croatia	Draw	Portugal
25.48% ( 0.87)	24.72% ( -0.52)	49.79% ( -0.34)

Both teams to score 53.17% (

2.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.83% (

2.82)

49.16% (

-2.82)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.77% (

2.49)

71.23% (

-2.49)

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.27% (

2.28)

33.73% (

-2.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.61% (

2.4)

70.38% (

-2.4)

Portugal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.23% (

0.98)

19.76% (

-0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.19% (

1.57)

51.81% (

-1.57)

Score Analysis

Croatia 25.48%

Portugal 49.79%

Draw 24.71%

Croatia	Draw	Portugal
1-0 @ 7.25% ( -0.39) 2-1 @ 6.38% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 3.94% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.23) 3-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.23) 3-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.1) Other @ 2.31% Total : 25.48%	1-1 @ 11.74% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.8) 2-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.35) 3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.15) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.71%	0-1 @ 10.8% ( -0.94) 1-2 @ 9.52% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 8.76% ( -0.48) 1-3 @ 5.15% ( 0.2) 0-3 @ 4.74% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 2.8% ( 0.27) 1-4 @ 2.09% ( 0.14) 0-4 @ 1.92% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.13% ( 0.14) Other @ 2.89% Total : 49.79%