SM
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 8 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Serbia | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 8 | -7 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland win with a probability of 46.61%. A win for Montenegro had a probability of 26.87% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.81%). The likeliest Montenegro win was 0-1 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iceland would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Iceland | Draw | Montenegro |
46.61% ( 0.05) | 26.51% ( 0) | 26.87% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 48.92% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.71% ( -0.06) | 55.28% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.49% ( -0.05) | 76.5% ( 0.05) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.3% | 23.7% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.18% | 57.82% ( -0) |
| Montenegro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.12% ( -0.08) | 35.88% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.34% ( -0.08) | 72.65% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Iceland | Draw | Montenegro |
| 1-0 @ 12.24% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.03% 2-0 @ 8.81% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.34% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.56% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.52% ( 0)Other @ 2.66% Total : 46.61% | 1-1 @ 12.54% 0-0 @ 8.5% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.83% Total : 26.5% | 0-1 @ 8.72% 1-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.95% Total : 26.87% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
