While a change in shape and personnel should at least see Poland's defence tighten up a tad, the visitors' defensive record away from home makes for bleak reading, and a well-rested crop of Netherlands stars should have a glint in their eyes here. Poland always possess a goal threat going forwards, but Van Gaal has overseen a stellar period of rejuvenation at the Oranje helm and will expect to see his side move onto nine points with relative ease. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 60.79%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Poland had a probability of 17.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.83%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Poland win it was 0-1 (5.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.

Result
Netherlands	Draw	Poland
60.79% ( 0.06)	21.77%	17.43% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 51.05% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.69% (

-0.09)

46.32% (

0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.4% (

-0.08)

68.6% (

0.09)

Netherlands Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.24% (

-0.01)

14.77% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.99% (

-0.02)

43.01% (

0.02)

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.89% (

-0.12)

40.11% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.25% (

-0.11)

76.75% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Netherlands 60.78%

Poland 17.43%

Draw 21.77%

Netherlands	Draw	Poland
1-0 @ 11.32% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 10.83% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.91% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 6.31% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.3% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.02% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.26% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.16% ( -0) Other @ 2.51% Total : 60.78%	1-1 @ 10.34% 0-0 @ 5.92% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.52% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.98% Total : 21.77%	0-1 @ 5.41% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.01% Total : 17.43%