SM
| Current League A4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Netherlands | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Belgium | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Poland | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Wales | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| Current League A4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Netherlands | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Belgium | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Poland | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Wales | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 55.5%. A win for Poland had a probability of 22.8% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Poland win was 1-2 (5.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Belgium | Draw | Poland |
55.5% ( -0.04) | 21.7% ( -0.01) | 22.8% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 60.28% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.65% ( 0.1) | 38.34% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.37% ( 0.1) | 60.63% ( -0.11) |
| Belgium Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.22% ( 0.02) | 13.78% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.91% ( 0.04) | 41.09% ( -0.04) |
| Poland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.91% ( 0.1) | 30.09% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.78% ( 0.12) | 66.22% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belgium | Draw | Poland |
| 2-1 @ 9.78% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 8.14% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 6.46% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.38% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.88% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.2% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.67% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.27% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.06% ( -0)Other @ 3.52% Total : 55.5% | 1-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.15% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 21.7% | 1-2 @ 5.93% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.99% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.37% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.2% ( 0)Other @ 2.99% Total : 22.8% |
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