Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA Women win with a probability of 56.04%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Germany Women had a probability of 20.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA Women win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a Germany Women win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA Women would win this match.
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