Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA Women win with a probability of 48.58%. A win for Japan Women had a probability of 25.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA Women win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Japan Women win was 0-1 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA Women would win this match.
-1.5) 
0.26) 
