SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion Under-21s win with a probability of 66.18%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 16.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.77%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.26%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 2-1 (4.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion Under-21s |
16.34% ( 0.64) | 17.47% ( 0.37) | 66.18% ( -1) |
| Both teams to score 64.49% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.11% ( -0.56) | 27.89% ( 0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.39% ( -0.7) | 48.61% ( 0.71) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.05% ( 0.33) | 29.95% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.94% ( 0.39) | 66.07% ( -0.39) |
| Brighton & Hove Albion Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.06% ( -0.34) | 7.94% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.95% ( -0.89) | 28.05% ( 0.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 2.87% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.23% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.38% Total : 16.34% | 1-1 @ 7.26% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 5.55% ( 0.09)0-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.41% Total : 17.48% | 1-2 @ 9.2% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 7.77% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 7.63% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 6.44% ( -0.12)0-1 @ 6.03% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 4.92% ( -0.14)2-3 @ 4.68% ( -0)0-4 @ 4.08% ( -0.15)2-4 @ 2.97% ( -0.05)1-5 @ 2.49% ( -0.11)0-5 @ 2.07% ( -0.11)2-5 @ 1.5% ( -0.05)3-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)1-6 @ 1.05% ( -0.07)Other @ 4.16% Total : 66.18% |
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