SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland Under-21s win with a probability of 55.46%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 24.35% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.78%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sunderland Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sunderland Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
55.46% ( 0.54) | 20.18% ( -0.11) | 24.35% ( -0.44) |
| Both teams to score 68.02% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.87% ( 0.06) | 29.13% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.86% ( 0.07) | 50.13% ( -0.08) |
| Sunderland Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.23% ( 0.16) | 10.77% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.23% ( 0.36) | 34.77% ( -0.36) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.23% ( -0.27) | 23.76% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.09% ( -0.39) | 57.91% ( 0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sunderland Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 9.13% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 6.78% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.06)1-0 @ 5.7% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.87% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.72% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 2.72% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.04)4-3 @ 1.3% 5-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.41% Total : 55.47% | 1-1 @ 8.2% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.56% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 2.56% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.53% Total : 20.18% | 1-2 @ 5.89% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 2.64% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.77% Total : 24.35% |
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