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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-21s win with a probability of 55.06%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 24.26% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.8%) and 3-1 (6.69%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
55.06% ( 0.78) | 20.68% ( -0.22) | 24.26% ( -0.56) |
| Both teams to score 65.99% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.29% ( 0.46) | 31.71% ( -0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.78% ( 0.54) | 53.22% ( -0.54) |
| Aston Villa Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.29% ( 0.37) | 11.71% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.17% ( 0.78) | 36.83% ( -0.78) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.74% ( -0.15) | 25.26% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.99% ( -0.21) | 60.01% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 9.36% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.09)1-0 @ 6.34% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 4.6% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 3.59% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.07)4-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.05)5-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.88% Total : 55.06% | 1-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 2.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.44% Total : 20.68% | 1-2 @ 6.01% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 4.07% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.43% Total : 24.26% |
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