SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Under-21s win with a probability of 70.83%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 13.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (8.02%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.94%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 2-1 (3.65%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Manchester City Under-21s |
13.8% ( -0.31) | 15.37% ( -0.3) | 70.83% ( 0.6) |
| Both teams to score 66.61% ( 0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 77.25% ( 0.79) | 22.74% ( -0.79) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 58.09% ( 1.07) | 41.91% ( -1.07) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.72% ( 0.21) | 29.27% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.76% ( 0.26) | 65.23% ( -0.26) |
| Manchester City Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.19% ( 0.28) | 5.81% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 77.66% ( 0.81) | 22.34% ( -0.81) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Manchester City Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 3.65% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 2.09% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.15% Total : 13.8% | 1-1 @ 5.94% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 1.7% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.51% Total : 15.37% | 1-2 @ 8.46% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 8.02% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.89% ( -0.15)0-3 @ 6.53% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 5.71% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 4.93% ( 0.04)0-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.19)0-4 @ 4.65% ( 0.06)2-4 @ 3.51% ( 0.09)1-5 @ 3.25% ( 0.11)0-5 @ 2.65% ( 0.08)2-5 @ 2% ( 0.08)1-6 @ 1.54% ( 0.08)3-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)0-6 @ 1.26% ( 0.06)2-6 @ 0.95% ( 0.05)Other @ 4.23% Total : 70.83% |
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